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Village-level climate change-induced livelihood vulnerability assessment using the IPCC AR5 framework to support resilient communities in the Indian Sundarban Region
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DOI：10.1007/s10668-026-08041-6.png)
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Abstract
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Climate change-induced hazards pose increasing risks to livelihoods in coastal and deltaic regions, making vulnerability assessments essential for effective adaptation planning. The Indian Sundarban Region, located in the southwestern Ganga-Brahmaputra-Meghna delta, is frequently exposed to cyclones, storm surges, and saline water, posing severe risks to coastal livelihoods. While previous studies have examined block-level livelihood vulnerability, village-level variations have remained underexplored. The study hypothesized that livelihood vulnerability showed significant variation among villages within the same block due to spatial variations in exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. To test this hypothesis, village level livelihood vulnerability was assessed using a Composite Vulnerability Index (CVI) based on 27 indicators for 454 villages in the Canning and Kakdwip subdivisions, following the IPCC AR5 vulnerability framework. Results revealed that 26.21% of villages fall within the high and highest vulnerability categories. Vulnerability was highest in villages of Gosaba and Basanti blocks of the Canning Subdivision because of greater exposure to coastal hazards. In contrast villages of Patharpratima and Kakdwip blocks showed comparatively lower vulnerability levels due to stronger adaptive capacity. Physical and social vulnerabilities were positively correlated with the CVI, whereas adaptive capacity showed the strongest mitigation influence, with the multiple regression model explaining 72% of the variation in CVI. Sensitivity and rank stability analysis confirmed the robustness of the CVI framework under alternative weighting scenarios, which was highly consistent. The generated maps and analytical insights will offer policymakers a framework for designing village-specific adaptation and resilience strategies to reduce CVI in climate-sensitive coastal regions.
Keywords:
Adaptive capacity
Composite vulnerability index
Indian Sundarban region
Resilience planning
Vulnerability mapping
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