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Warming Drives Streamflow Reductions and Intensifies Hydrologic Whiplash, Threatening California's Water Supply
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DOI：10.1029/2025EF006985.png)
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Abstract
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California's Sierra Nevada region plays a key role in the state's water supply, which is often stressed due to swings between dry and wet conditions characteristic of the region's climate. Here, we refer to these dramatic interannual swings in streamflow as hydrologic whiplash. We produce the first robust projections of hydrologic whiplash by analyzing a hybrid-downscaled large ensemble data set of streamflow in Sierra Nevada watersheds. Due to warming-induced water losses, we project statistically significant future increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme dry streamflow years (≤5th percentile), along with insignificant changes in the frequency of extreme wet streamflow years (≥95th percentile). Consequently, increases in hydrologic drought drive a three-fold increase in the frequency of hydrologic whiplash events. The hydrologic changes identified in this paper are not evident from analysis of precipitation changes alone and demonstrate remarkable statistical agreement, providing greater clarity for California water managers as they adapt to climate change. Altogether, these findings signal a shift toward dryer and more volatile future hydrologic conditions that could challenge California's ability to replenish its water supply between increasingly frequent and severe dry events.
Keywords:
regional climate
hydrology
water resources
climate change
machine learning
decision relevant science
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