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When do educational expectations motivate effort? Expectation-opportunity alignment and study time across 27 countries
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DOI：10.1016/j.ssresearch.2026.103360.png)
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Abstract
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Educational expectations are widely assumed to motivate student effort, yet their effectiveness may depend on broader opportunity structures. Using data from the 2018 Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) across 27 countries and economies, this study investigates (a) the association between expectations for higher education and study time, and (b) how this relationship varies cross-nationally. Country-specific regressions show that, while expectations predict greater study time in many contexts, associations are insignificant elsewhere. Multilevel models further reveal that, on average, higher educational expectations correspond to significantly more study time; however, the strength of this association systematically depends on the alignment between a country's prevalence of educational expectations and its rate of higher education enrollment. The results demonstrate an inverted U-shaped pattern, where expectations strongly predict effort when aspirations and opportunities are well-aligned, but lose their significance under conditions of either scarcity or abundance of opportunity. These findings highlight the conditional nature of students' motivational responses to expectations and the importance of contextual opportunity structures in shaping academic effort.
Keywords:
Education expectations
Higher education
Study time
Opportunity structure
Motivation
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