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Why do some territories succeed in sustainability transitions while others fail? Carbon emission divergence in China’s border cities and the shrinkage-lock-in trap
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DOI：10.3389/fenvs.2026.1800484.png)
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Abstract
En 中文
Sustainability transitions are profoundly shaped by territorial contexts; yet the mechanisms underlying spatial inequalities in transition capacity remain insufficiently understood; with empirical evidence from the Global South particularly scarce. This study examines 22 border cities in Northeast and Northwest China using panel data from 2010; 2015; and 2020; employing Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) decomposition and interaction effect regression models to systematically compare the spatial divergence of low-carbon transitions and their driving mechanisms between the two regions. Carbon emissions are calculated using the Scope 1–2–3 framework and expressed in 10; 000 tonnes CO2 equivalent; carbon intensity is defined as carbon emissions per unit of GDP measured in 2010 constant prices (tonnes CO2/$1; 000 USD; converted at the 2010 annual average exchange rate of 6.77 CNY/USD). The findings reveal a paradox: Northeast border cities experienced an 18.9% population decline and sluggish economic growth; yet their carbon intensity increased by 2.0%; in contrast; Northwest border cities achieved a 42.5% reduction in carbon intensity while maintaining rapid economic growth. LMDI decomposition indicates that the carbon emission coefficient effect in the Northeast more than offset the emission reductions attributable to population decline; pointing to a deterioration in energy structure rather than efficiency improvement. Interaction effect analysis further confirms that climatic conditions significantly moderate the relationship between city type and carbon emissions; with industrial cities in humid climate zones emitting approximately 4.0 times more carbon than their counterparts in arid zones (unadjusted group means). Integrating carbon lock-in theory with urban shrinkage research; this study proposes the conceptual framework of the “Shrinkage-Lock-in Trap; ” suggesting how urban shrinkage and carbon lock-in may mutually reinforce each other through investment contraction; technological stagnation; and institutional inertia; potentially undermining local transition capacity. These findings highlight the limitations of uniform emission reduction targets and point to the potential value of place-based differentiated transition strategies; with policy focus shifting from emission reduction quotas toward rebuilding transition capacity.
Keywords:
Northeast China
carbon intensity
sustainability transitions
border cities
carbon lock-in
place-based strategies
spatial inequalities
urban shrinkage
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