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Why does El Niño develop slowly but decay rapidly
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OA
AI
X
张
X
J
DOI：10.1038/s41612-026-01498-2.png)
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Abstract
En 中文
El Niño events typically develop slowly but decay rapidly, yet the processes driving this phase asymmetry remain insufficiently quantified. Here we diagnose the mixed-layer heat budget over integration depths ranging from 30 to 100 m and introduce a depth-resolved diagnostic framework. The results indicate that the asymmetry arises from thermodynamic damping, oceanic zonal advection, and thermocline feedbacks. The thermodynamic damping mainly reflects a passive linear response to warm sea surface temperature anomalies, while the seasonal modulation of the damping efficiency adds a decay-phase enhancement. Dynamical feedbacks vary strongly with depth and are amplified during a concentrated period of the decay year, driven by oceanic wave adjustment and seasonally varying background conditions. The depth-resolved diagnosis shows that attribution of El Niño phase asymmetry depends on the vertical structure of the heat budget, providing a physical benchmark for interpreting ENSO evolution and identifying potential precursors that may inform El Niño prediction systems.
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