Combination forecasting using multiple attribute decision making in tourism demand

Yi‐Chung Hu

doi:10.1108/TR-09-2021-0451

2022-03-01

PRE

Yi‐Chung Hu *

DOI：10.1108/TR-09-2021-0451

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摘要

En 中文

Purpose This study aims to address three important issues of combination forecasting in the tourism context: reducing the restrictions arising from requirements related to the statistical properties of the available data, assessing the weights of single models and considering nonlinear relationships among combinations of single-model forecasts. Design Methodology Approach A three-stage multiple-attribute decision-making (MADM)-based methodological framework was proposed. Single-model forecasts were generated by grey prediction models for the first stage. Vlsekriterijumska Optimizacija I Kompromisno Resenje was adopted to develop a weighting scheme in the second stage, and the Choquet integral was used to combine forecasts nonlinearly in the third stage. Findings The empirical results for inbound tourism in Taiwan showed that the proposed method can significantly improve accuracy to a greater extent than other combination methods. Along with scenario forecasting, a good forecasting practice can be further provided by estimating ex-ante forecasts post-COVID-19. Practical Implications The private and public sectors in economies with high tourism dependency can benefit from the proposed method by using the forecasts to help them formulate tourism strategies. Originality Value This study contributed to presenting a MADM-based framework that advances the development of a more accurate combination method for tourism forecasting.

Keyword:

Artificial intelligence

Multiple attribute decision-making

Forecast combination

Tourism demand

Grey prediction

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demanda turistica

analisis de decision de atributos multiples

Combinacion de pronostico