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Modelling EAT-lancet dietary patterns scenarios: effects on environmental and health metrics in children and adolescents
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DOI：10.1007/s00394-026-04069-6.png)
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Abstract
En 中文
To simulate realistic dietary scenarios aligned with the EAT-Lancet reference diet and evaluate their impact on diet-related greenhouse gas emissions (GHGE), land use (LU), and obesity status in paediatric age. Dietary intake of children (3–9 y) and adolescents (10–17 y) from the last National Food, Nutrition, and Physical Activity Survey, Portugal (n = 1153), was assessed using food diaries (children) and 24-h recalls (adolescents) and an automated multiple-pass method with portion size estimations. The World Index for Sustainability and Health (WISH) measured adherence to the EAT-Lancet reference diet, reflecting dietary quality aligned with planetary health principles. Diet-related environmental indicators (greenhouse gas emissions [GHGE] and land use [LU]) were estimated using the SHARP-Indicators database. BMI (measured) z-scores were classified according to WHO criteria. Dietary patterns (DP) were derived using latent class analysis. Simulations aligned current dietary intake with the EAT-Lancet reference diet. The potential to prevent obesity cases was estimated by Potential Impact Fractions (PIF). Overall, current diets are not aligned with the Planetary Health Diet. Among children, reducing the consumption of eggs, meats, fish, and soft drinks improved WISH scores and decreased environmental indicators. For adolescents, the greatest reductions of these indicators were achieved by reducing dairy and red meat. The scenario that led to the largest significant reduction in obesity cases involved a shift towards a plant-based dietary pattern (PIF = 0.7% children, 0.2% adolescents), which also increased environmental impact (with mean GHGE increasing from 3.9 to 4.1 kg CO2-eq), as it replaced diets already low in animal products with a plant-based pattern of greater overall food intake. To effectively enhance adherence to the EAT-Lancet diet, promoting plant-based foods should be coupled with reductions in dairy, meat, soft drinks, and total dietary quantity.
Keywords:
Childhood
Adolescence
Diet
Health
Sustainability
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