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Does media reports on swine diseases improve the prediction accuracy of pork Price fluctuations? Evidence from China
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DOI：10.1002/jsfa.70851.png)
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Abstract
En 中文
Understanding and accurately forecasting pork price volatility are critically important for the stable development of the pig industry and for designing targeted regulatory policies. In the era of a highly developed internet, media reports on swine diseases have emerged as a significant factor influencing price fluctuations, yet their role in improving prediction accuracy has not been rigorously quantified. Based on monthly data from China spanning 2012–2023, the present study constructed a hybrid forecasting framework integrating media report indicators (exposure and sentiment) with Crested Porcupine Optimizer (CPO)-feature mode decomposition (FMD) secondary decomposition and several prediction models to assess whether media reports on swine diseases improve the prediction accuracy of pork price fluctuations.
Keywords:
pork price fluctuations
swine diseases
media reports
forecast
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3.5
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